Pakistan's Ex-NSA: 'Don't See a Major War with India, but Have to Be Ready'

Anas Awan May 04, 2025

Pakistan’s former National Security Adviser highlights the urgent need for crisis communication mechanisms with India following the deadly Kashmir attack.

Kashmir Attack Reignites Fears of Escalation — But War May Not Be Inevitable

In the wake of the brutal Pahalgam terrorist attack that claimed 26 lives in Indian-administered Kashmir, tensions between India and Pakistan have reached their most dangerous point in years. Despite the heightened military posturing and retaliatory measures, Pakistan’s former National Security Adviser (NSA) has offered a more measured perspective: war is not inevitable, but both sides must remain vigilant.

The ex-NSA, speaking on condition of anonymity during a televised interview, stated:

“I don’t foresee a full-scale war with India, but we have to be prepared for any escalation. The bigger issue is the absence of crisis management mechanisms between the two nations.”

This sober analysis underscores a growing concern among regional experts: the lack of bilateral communication protocols could allow minor skirmishes to spiral out of control — a risk amplified by nuclear capabilities on both sides.

The Pahalgam Attack and Its Aftermath

  • Date: April 22, 2025

  • Location: Baisaran Valley, near Pahalgam, Kashmir

  • Victims: 26 Hindu tourists killed in a targeted attack

  • Perpetrators: The Resistance Front, allegedly linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based group

Indian authorities responded swiftly:

  • Diplomatic fallout: Expelled Pakistani diplomats

  • Policy moves: Suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a key 1960 water-sharing agreement

  • Border control: Closed borders and visa services for Pakistani nationals

Each of these actions has compounded fears of a potential confrontation, with India signaling that it will no longer tolerate cross-border terrorism linked to Pakistani soil.

Pakistan’s Reaction and Strategic Posture

In retaliation, Pakistan suspended the 1972 Shimla Agreement, halted bilateral trade, and expelled Indian officials. The most alarming development came on May 3, when Pakistan test-fired the Abdali surface-to-surface missile, with a 280-mile range, as a demonstration of military readiness.

Pakistan’s leadership continues to deny involvement in the Pahalgam massacre, framing it as a "false flag operation" and urging for an independent international investigation. However, growing international skepticism and India's diplomatic offensive have left Pakistan increasingly isolated.

Experts Warn of "Accidental Escalation"

Former intelligence officials, diplomats, and defense analysts across both countries agree on one point: the absence of crisis management tools is now the most dangerous element in this standoff.

Key risks include:

  • No direct communication channels between military leaders

  • Ceasefire violations at the Line of Control (LoC) occurring almost nightly

  • Political pressures on both sides to retaliate, especially with upcoming elections in India

According to security analyst Dr. Sameer Lalwani:

“The longer this standoff continues without dialogue, the greater the chance that misjudgment could lead to a full-blown war. Neither side may want it, but both could stumble into it.”

Nuclear Stakes: A Regional and Global Concern

The India-Pakistan conflict is unlike most others—both nations possess nuclear weapons, and each has adopted ambiguous policies on their use. India’s “no first use” policy contrasts sharply with Pakistan’s doctrine, which permits nuclear retaliation to even a conventional threat.

This makes Kashmir the world’s most volatile nuclear flashpoint.

Global Response and Calls for Mediation

The United Nations and several global powers have urged restraint. However, both India and Pakistan reject third-party involvement, viewing Kashmir as a bilateral issue.

International organizations and think tanks like the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and WarInsights.com have called for:

  • Reestablishment of hotlines between military leaders

  • Revival of backchannel diplomacy

  • Multilateral pressure to reinstate the Indus Waters Treaty and Shimla Agreement

The Ex-NSA's Message: Prepare, but Prevent

The former Pakistani NSA's remarks serve as a timely reminder:

“Peace requires preparation, not just for war, but for crisis management. If we had clear protocols, we wouldn’t be playing this dangerous game after every attack.”

His words reflect a crucial point that remains underappreciated in both capitals — a permanent peace requires more than weapons and posturing. It demands systems, dialogue, and mutual accountability.

Conclusion

While the immediate outlook between India and Pakistan remains tense, the hope lies in rational leadership and international diplomatic support. The lessons of history — from the Kargil conflict to the Pulwama-Balakot crisis — make it clear: without structured communication, miscalculations are inevitable.

The ex-NSA’s warning should be taken seriously, not only by South Asian leaders but by the global community.

✅ Stay Informed. Stay Engaged.


Anas Awan

Posted by Anas Awan

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