Is Pakistan Developing a Long-Range Ballistic Missile?

 The United States has raised concerns that Pakistan is developing larger rocket motors, potentially for a long-range ballistic missile capable of reaching beyond South Asia. While open-source evidence supports these claims, the exact purpose of Pakistan's missile development remains uncertain.

U.S. Raises Alarm Over Pakistan’s Missile Capabilities

Washington has speculated that Pakistan may be working on ballistic missiles with extended range, possibly reaching U.S. territories within a decade. These claims have been strongly denied by Islamabad. However, the U.S. assessment is based on recent advancements in Pakistan’s missile-testing capabilities, particularly its ability to test significantly larger rocket motors than before.

From a U.S. perspective, what is currently a non-proliferation issue could evolve into a deterrence challenge in the near future. The situation has led to increased scrutiny of Pakistan’s missile program, raising questions about regional security and global stability.

U.S. Sanctions and Chinese Involvement in Pakistan’s Missile Program

On December 18, 2024, the U.S. Department of State imposed sanctions on four Pakistani organizations involved in missile development, including the National Defence Complex (NDC)—a key player in Pakistan’s solid-propellant ballistic missile program. Earlier sanctions in 2023 and 2024 targeted Chinese firms accused of supplying Pakistan with missile technology.

China has been a long-standing supporter of Pakistan’s missile and nuclear programs, while the U.S. has actively pursued counter-proliferation measures. The increasing technological collaboration between Beijing and Islamabad has raised red flags in Washington, with concerns that Pakistan could soon possess intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities.

Evidence of Pakistan’s Long-Range Missile Development

U.S. officials, including former Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer, have warned that Pakistan is developing “increasingly sophisticated missile technology”, including larger rocket motors that could extend missile range beyond South Asia. Satellite imagery and intelligence assessments suggest that Pakistan has been working on improving its missile production and testing facilities, but its exact ambitions remain unclear.

Finer’s statements imply that Pakistan may be developing ICBMs, a capability that would significantly alter the global strategic balance. While U.S. assessments suggest this threat could materialize within a decade, there is currently no conclusive open-source evidence to confirm Pakistan’s ICBM ambitions.

Pakistan’s Missile Advancements: What the Data Reveals

Recent U.S. sanctions have targeted Chinese companies supplying composite materials for ballistic missile motor cases, including D-glass fiber and quartz fabric. These materials are essential for producing lightweight but durable missile components, enhancing range and payload capacity.

Pakistan’s older missiles, including the Shaheen-I, Shaheen-II, Ababeel, and Shaheen-III, primarily use steel motor cases, which are heavier and limit range expansion. However, transitioning to composite materials, as seen in India’s Agni-V ICBM, can increase range by 20% or more. If Pakistan is indeed incorporating these advanced materials, it could be aiming for longer-range missile capabilities.

Satellite Evidence: A New Test Facility in Pakistan?

Between May 2021 and late 2023, Pakistan constructed a large horizontal rocket motor test stand at an NDC facility in Attock. This new facility is significantly larger than Pakistan’s existing test stands, indicating the potential development of larger-diameter missile motors.

Satellite imagery of another NDC facility near Rawalpindi also shows construction of new buildings, hinting at expanded missile development operations. These developments align with Washington’s assessment that Pakistan is actively enhancing its missile capabilities.

Islamabad’s Response: Denial and Strategic Justifications

Pakistan has dismissed U.S. allegations as “unfounded and irrational”, arguing that Washington’s concerns lack historical context. Islamabad maintains that its missile program is focused solely on regional deterrence, particularly against India, and not on intercontinental capabilities.

Despite U.S. concerns, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine remains India-centric, relying on full-spectrum deterrence (FSD) to counter Indian military advancements. However, growing military asymmetries—such as India’s Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs) and second-strike capabilities—have prompted Pakistan to seek technological advancements to maintain strategic balance.

Potential Applications for Larger Rocket Motors

While the development of larger rocket motors raises questions, several potential applications exist:

1. Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs): A missile capable of reaching beyond South Asia, including the U.S.

2. Space Launch Vehicles (SLVs): Civilian applications for Pakistan’s Space Vision 2047 program, though no SLV plans are currently stated.

3. Multiple Warhead Capabilities (MIRVs): Enhancing Pakistan’s missile forces to counter India’s emerging missile defense systems.

4. Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs): Strengthening Pakistan’s second-strike capability, though its naval focus has been on cruise missiles rather than ballistic systems.

Strategic Implications for South Asia and Global Security

If Pakistan is indeed developing longer-range ballistic missiles, it raises critical strategic concerns:

• Escalation of the Arms Race: India and Pakistan have historically mirrored each other’s military advancements. If Pakistan moves toward ICBMs, India could follow suit, intensifying regional tensions.

• Non-Proliferation Challenges: U.S. sanctions aim to curb missile proliferation, but China’s continued support for Pakistan may limit their effectiveness.

• Global Deterrence Dynamics: If Pakistan’s missile advancements continue, they could transition from a regional concern to an international deterrence issue, affecting U.S. and global security strategies.

Conclusion: What Lies Ahead?

While there is no definitive proof that Pakistan is actively developing ICBMs, its efforts to acquire advanced materials and expand testing infrastructure suggest a shift toward longer-range missile capabilities. U.S. concerns, coupled with China’s role in supporting Pakistan’s missile program, will likely drive further sanctions and diplomatic actions.

As the geopolitical landscape evolves, the coming years will be crucial in determining whether Pakistan remains committed to regional deterrence or expands its missile ambitions toward intercontinental capabilities.

Source: IISS