US Sanctions on Pakistan's Missile Program: Unintended Risks

The United States recently imposed sanctions on four Pakistani entities connected to the country’s ballistic missile program. Among them is the National Defense Complex, a key missile production facility. According to the US State Department, these sanctions aim to curb the proliferation risks posed by Pakistan's long-range missile development. However, this move could yield unintended consequences, impacting regional stability and US interests in the long term.

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Background on Pakistan's Ballistic Missile Program

Pakistan’s missile program, particularly its long-range Shaheen-III missile, has been pivotal in maintaining a strategic balance with India. The Shaheen-III, tested in April 2022, has a range of 2,750 km, enabling Pakistan to counter potential threats and bolster its defense posture. Pakistani officials view these capabilities as critical to ensuring sovereignty and regional peace.

The US sanctions, however, have drawn sharp criticism from Islamabad. Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs labeled the move as “biased” and suggested it could undermine strategic stability in South Asia.

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The Risks of Sanctions Backfiring

1. Erosion of Sanctions' Effectiveness

US sanctions on Pakistan’s missile program may push Islamabad to seek alternative partnerships and evade restrictions. Historically, sanctions have not deterred Pakistan from advancing its missile capabilities. Instead, they often serve to reinforce the country’s commitment to its defense strategy, including "full-spectrum deterrence."

This approach ensures that Pakistan’s missile arsenal remains capable of targeting Indian territories at all levels of conflict. For Islamabad, the costs of compromising its security outweigh the potential economic repercussions of US sanctions.

2. Pakistan-China Strategic Alignment

As US-Pakistan relations cool, Islamabad could deepen its ties with Beijing. China has been a long-standing defense partner for Pakistan, particularly in missile development. During the 1990s, when US sanctions were first imposed, China transferred critical missile technology to Pakistan, enabling it to develop systems like the Ghauri and Shaheen missiles.

The current sanctions might further solidify this partnership, with China seeing an opportunity to enhance its regional influence by supporting Pakistan’s defense needs.

3. Impact on Regional Stability

The US sanctions come at a time when Washington is strengthening its strategic partnership with India. This growing collaboration, aimed at countering China, has granted India access to advanced defense technologies and space capabilities. For Pakistan, this partnership exacerbates security concerns, compelling it to enhance its missile systems.

If Pakistan feels increasingly cornered, it could escalate its defense efforts, including advancements in space-launch technologies, which are dual-use and could also serve its missile program. Such developments risk intensifying the arms race in South Asia, undermining the very stability the US seeks to promote.

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The Need for Meaningful Dialogue

Sanctions alone are unlikely to compel Pakistan to alter its defense policies. Instead, the US should focus on engaging Pakistan through diplomatic channels to address mutual concerns.

1. Track II Diplomacy

Encouraging dialogue between think tanks and policymakers from both countries can help bridge gaps in understanding.

2. Acknowledging Pakistan’s Security Concerns

The US must recognize the strategic challenges Islamabad faces from India’s growing military capabilities.

3. Exploring Collaborative Solutions

Collaborative measures, such as arms control agreements or confidence-building initiatives, could help reduce tensions in the region.

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Conclusion

The US sanctions on Pakistan’s ballistic missile program risk undermining regional stability and alienating Islamabad at a time when diplomatic engagement is critical. Strengthening Pakistan-China relations and escalating the South Asian arms race are just two of the potential unintended consequences.

Rather than relying solely on punitive measures, the US should adopt a balanced approach that includes dialogue and collaboration. Only through meaningful engagement can the long-term goal of strategic stability in South Asia be achieved.

By addressing these risks proactively, Washington can better align its policies with regional peace and its broader geopolitical objectives.