Repeat of 2006? Why Israel’s Ground Offensive in Lebanon Won’t Be Easy

The specter of the past looms large as Israel embarks on a new military operation in southern Lebanon, reminiscent of the disastrous events of 2006. With its tanks and armored vehicles deployed in the Upper Galilee region, the Israeli military is poised to confront Hezbollah amid a backdrop of escalating tensions and ongoing conflict.

A Historical Context

The last major Israeli ground operation in Lebanon, during the month-long war of July 2006, ended in failure. Israeli soldiers found themselves entangled in fierce battles, with Hezbollah fighters employing strategic ambushes that resulted in significant casualties—121 Israeli soldiers lost their lives, and more than 20 tanks were destroyed. The government-established Winograd Commission concluded that Israel's military response fell short, labeling the campaign, known as Operation Change of Direction, a failure.

Fast forward nearly two decades, and Israel's military has announced a “limited, localized, and targeted” ground offensive against Hezbollah. However, the scale and preparedness of the current operation suggest that Israel may be gearing up for a more extensive incursion than initially stated.

Rising Tensions and Displacement

As Hezbollah ramped up rocket attacks into Israel in early October, approximately 60,000 residents in northern Israel have been displaced. The group has linked its actions to the ongoing war in Gaza, threatening to continue hostilities until Israel ceases its bombardment. In the past year alone, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have led to the displacement of over 100,000 people, and recent aerial attacks on Hezbollah targets have resulted in the death of the group's longstanding leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's objective remains consistent: to neutralize the threat posed by Hezbollah and ensure the safe return of displaced Israelis. However, analysts warn that the Israeli government might be underestimating Hezbollah’s capabilities and the risks of being mired in another drawn-out conflict.

Learning from the Past

Israel's military leadership appears to be taking lessons from the 2006 conflict seriously. IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi emphasized combat preparedness to the 7th Armored Brigade, asserting that Israeli forces are now stronger and more experienced. This time, elite combat divisions are being mobilized, comprising approximately 12,000 to 14,000 troops backed by advanced artillery and tanks.

In contrast to the hasty operations of 2006, the current offensive is based on extensive preparatory work. Since September 23, Israel has conducted massive aerial bombardments targeting Hezbollah's assets throughout Lebanon, culminating in the assassination of key leaders within the group.

Hezbollah's Enhanced Capabilities

While Israel bolsters its military strength, Hezbollah has evolved significantly since 2006. The group’s ranks have grown from around 5,000 to tens of thousands of fighters, with an elite Radwan Force that is well-acquainted with the terrain of southern Lebanon. This experience is complemented by a stockpile of missiles and a wealth of combat experience gained from their involvement in Syria.

The dynamics of the battlefield have changed; both sides now employ surveillance drones, but Hezbollah's underground combat tunnels could provide them with a strategic advantage. This subterranean warfare capability allows Hezbollah to launch surprise attacks and potentially outmaneuver Israeli forces.

Broader Military Objectives

Former US diplomat Nabeel Khoury notes that Israel’s ambitions extend beyond merely targeting Hezbollah leaders. The military aims to achieve broader strategic objectives encompassing the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and Lebanon. This comprehensive approach raises questions about the feasibility of maintaining a “limited” operation while simultaneously dismantling Hezbollah's capabilities.

History has shown that previous Israeli incursions into Lebanon often led to prolonged military engagements. The 1982 invasion, initially intended as a short campaign, resulted in an 18-year occupation marked by significant loss of life and the emergence of Hezbollah as a potent adversary.

The Challenge of Buffer Zones

One proposed solution for Israel to secure its northern borders is the establishment of a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. However, experts argue that such a strategy would require a sustained military presence, making Israeli troops prime targets for Hezbollah attacks. Additionally, Hezbollah's extensive missile arsenal poses a constant threat, rendering a buffer zone ineffective in guaranteeing safety for northern Israeli residents.

Conclusion

As Israel embarks on this new military offensive, analysts caution that the lessons of 2006 may not be fully grasped. The potential for a prolonged and complicated conflict looms, and the objectives of neutralizing Hezbollah remain daunting. The historical precedents suggest that the current operation may become as complex and entangled as those that came before it, leading to a military engagement fraught with challenges and uncertainties.

With the situation evolving rapidly, only time will tell how this new chapter in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict will unfold, but one thing is clear: history has a way of repeating itself.